Montana Ag: Market outlook for wheat - KPAX.com | Continuous News | Missoula & Western Montana

Montana Ag: Market outlook for wheat

Posted: 12/06/2017 21:59:00 -07:00 Updated:

Weather and markets are still two of the most important things to farmers and ranchers.

Wheat growers heard the market outlook for 2018 at the Wheat U event this week in Spokane. 

"It's kind of a mixture where on one end, it looks like we're in such deep trouble but there are qualifiers that can bring us to life sooner than you think," Speaker Mike Krueger of MK Consulting said.

Krueger explained that one of the reasons for today's low prices is a wheat glut around the world with one country in particular grabbing his attention.

"Almost half of it is going to be isolated in China and that used to be more like 25 to 30 percent," he said. "So the amount of wheat that's available in the world is actually quite a bit smaller than the measurement that most people look at."

However, wheat growers saw a rare price rally during harvest this summer.

"It looked like we were going to bring world supplies down pretty good," Krueger said. "There wasn't room for weather threats. We were having trouble in Kansas. You think half the world was in Kansas when they have bad weather. So we had some things building."

The rally didn't last and prices have settled back with not much change expected in the near term. 

"Today, I'll use Chicago March as the main measure. It should have pretty good support at $4.25 unless the funds want to set a new record going short," Krueger said. "I don't think they are going to do that. That's trying to hold a lot of resistance, just 20 to 25 cents higher without some pretty significant news."

One thing is for certain, 2017 has been a roller coaster ride for the United States wheat markets. 

According to the Montana Ag Statistics Service, Montana farmers planted over five million acres of wheat this past year with a value of nearly $1 billion to the state's economy.

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