It's been more than a week now since Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran. Since then, the two nations have continued trading attacks in a deadly back and forth.
Israel is an ally of the United States, and the Trump administration is now considering possible military involvement.
The issue at the center of this conflict — Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon — is one that has confronted American presidents for decades.
The Iranian regime's efforts to enrich uranium became public in the early 2000s. They claim it is for peaceful purposes, such as generating electricity, but there have long been fears that they could develop a nuclear bomb.
“We know that they have some capabilities, but what we only know for sure is that the fissile material they have exceed what a peaceful program would require,” said Francesca Giovannini, Executive Director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School. “What we don't know is the rest of it.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered the attacks on Iran because Israel believes Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb. However, U.S. officials are divided on that.
“The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,” said U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard during a Congressional hearing in March.
However, President Trump disagrees with that assessment.
“I don’t care what she said, I think they were very close to having one,” President Trump told reporters when asked about what Gabbard said.
Iran does have several nuclear facilities, many of which have been damaged in Israeli attacks. One of those damaged facilities, the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant site, was producing uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, just a short step from weapons-grade levels of 90% purity.
“Nuclear power plants, in general, operate with a maximum of 3% enriched uranium. So, to be able to enrich 60%, it means that Iran has acquired very advanced centrifuges,” said Giovannini. “If the Iranians really wanted to enrich at 90%, it was basically a matter of weeks, probably a few months, but it would not take them years to get to that level.”
Giovannini said that while Israel has done damage to Iran’s nuclear program, it hasn't destroyed it entirely.
“Have the Israelis done damage? Yes. Have they destroyed the core of the nuclear program? No. These damages can be fixed for a country that is as ambitious and as developed as Iran,” said Giovannini. “These are not going to be, you know, death sentences."
As Iranian missiles struck Israel on Friday, foreign ministers from France, Germany and the United Kingdom met with representatives from Iran in Geneva, Switzerland. The Europeans are pushing for a de-escalation of the current hostilities.
Meanwhile, President Trump says he will decide within the next two weeks whether the U.S. will strike Iran.
