BILLINGS — A scramble for Montana's western congressional seat is now underway after incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke announced he would not be running for another term due to health concerns.
Zinke has served the district since 2023 and appeared to be the heavy favorite to be re-elected. Now, it's created an unlikely competition for both the Democratic and Republican parties in Montana.
Click here to learn more:
Jake Eaton, president of The Political Company, a political consulting firm that works closely with many of Montana's most prominent Republican candidates, said the announcement was a blow to the party.
"It was a little disappointing for Republicans," Eaton said Monday afternoon. "Congressman Zinke was very well positioned for re-election, but he's doing the right thing kind of for his health and for his family."
Eaton said it will change a lot about the western congressional race, starting with some new competition from both parties.
"Any time you have an open seat, it's going to automatically be more competitive," Eaton said.
MSUB political professor Paul Pope says that extra competition could serve the Democratic Party well.
"All the stars have aligned to help Democrats win this seat," Pope said. "It's going to be an open race."
Historically, midterm elections aren't favorable for the party currently holding the President's seat. Pope said that already puts the Republican party in a hole heading into midterms.
"The chances of the Republicans doing well and maintaining both the House and Senate are extremely remote," Pope said. "In times when the economy is not doing well, the voters tend to punish the incumbent party."
Eaton said the open seat will likely draw more spending from both parties, especially the Democrats who have a new opportunity.
"Any time you have an open seat, that's even remotely competitive, the dollar signs just start going up and up," Eaton said. "They're in a position where they think they can expand the map, so dropping 5-10 million bucks into picking up another seat in California might not go a long way but they think it could go a long way in Montana."
Eaton feels good about the Republicans' chances to keep the seat. He said he likes Aaron Flint, host of the Billings-based conservative talk radio show "Montana Right Now," because of his statewide name recognition. Eaton has also known him since college.
"I think he's going to be the consensus candidate for folks and everybody's going to be really excited and coalesce around him really fast," Eaton said. "Kind of like it was for Tim Sheehy. As soon as he emerged, everybody was like 'Yep. That's the guy. We can all get behind him and support him.'"
Flint announced his candidacy Monday, just hours after Zinke announced he wasn't running.
Montana's western congressional seat has suddenly drawn more eyes to the Treasure State with a big decision coming in November.
