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Montana Ag Report: Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting

Posted at 1:52 PM, Jul 31, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-01 12:32:35-04

DENVER –  The 2019 Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting is underway this week in Denver. Many producers across the nation are attending this week’s event to create grassroots policy to help set a positive direction for the cattle industry. They are also learning about important financial aspects of the industry.

Cattle producers across Montana and the nation are eager to see what the cattle market will look like through the rest of this year and moving forward. Currently, 550lb steer calves are averaging $1.70/lb. That is $10 to $15 cheaper than the past two years. During the Summer Business Meeting,  Cattle Fax’s Randy Bloch gave a mid-year update on the state of the cattle market.

“If you look at where calf prices are trading today the risk is always when we move in the fall,” said Bloch. “In the fall these calf prices are going to get softer. Again, that happens eight out of ten years. The calf market is softer in October, November than it is in July and August. On what we’re forward selling, putting on to video auctions, private treaty, whatever the case may be. So that’s strong odds. 80 percent odds the market will be softer. I think this year will be one of those years where they get softer again going into fall.”

Cattle Fax says corn remains a potential threat to the marketplace and reinforces that seller should sell in early summer and not overthink what might come of the market. As for the expansion of the cattle herd and as it starts to plateau, the supply and demand aspects the U.S Cattle herd will look much different than in years past.

“Today’s markets are demand-driven,” said Bloch. “I think the cow herd will flatten out. We’re not going to go through a big liquidation phase like a few years ago. If this demand continues to grow then we’ll see this calf market continue to build.”

Visit cattlefax.com for more market insight.