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New poll shows Montana U.S. Senate race a toss up

Posted at 9:15 PM, Oct 04, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-05 09:03:12-04

The race between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale is now considered a tossup, according to the Cook Political Report.

Just a month ago, Cook listed the Montana race as a “likely” Democrat win. The nonpartisan online newsletter shifted its rank for Montana from “Lean Democrat” Thursday.

The Cook report showed a “likely” win for Tester from just after the June primary until Aug. 24. Likely means the race is not considered competitive, according to Cook.

On Sept. 21, the race turned to leaning, which means it was competitive but still an advantage for Tester.

Tester has been ahead in every public poll, but the race is within the margin of error.

Cook Senate race analyst Jennifer Duffy said the reasons for the change are Republicans showing support in a state President Trump carried by 20 points and the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has energized the GOP base.

Even with the tossup rating, Duffy said Tester has the advantage.

For the U.S. House, the Cook Political report shows the race in Montana leaning toward Republican Congressman Greg Gianforte against Democratic challenger Kathleen Williams.