MISSOULA — Our persistently mild November will continue for a few more days, but all indications point to a pattern change arriving for Thanksgiving week.
Until then, a few showers are likely into early Wednesday for Western Montana (especially Northwest Montana) with highs well above average in the mid-40s to low 50s. Very light accumulations will be possible at pass level early Wednesday morning.
Patchy (locally dense) valley fog looks to develop during the mornings through Friday as high pressure builds in. We’ll see a nice mix of clouds, sun, and dry time otherwise. Again, highs will remain on the milder side in the 40s to around 50.
This coming weekend, a surge of moisture looks to move in with scattered showers (mainly in Northwest Montana) Saturday and more widespread, areawide showers Sunday. Snow levels on Saturday and Sunday will be near 5,000’ across northwest Montana and 6,500’ to the south.
Models have backed down on the total precipitation amounts, but I’d still expect to see up to 0.50” of liquid precipitation in the mountains along the MT/ID border and into GNP. Highs this weekend will be in the mid to upper 40s.
It does look to get colder, however… as of now, Thanksgiving travel week could pose some travel impacts. A cold front looks to likely impact western Montana between Monday and Tuesday with breezy winds, cooler highs, and light pass level accumulation as snow levels look to drop to roughly 4,000’-4,500’ Monday.
Right now, there’s a 60% to 80% chance that highs will be at or below freezing on Wednesday for Western Montana. If we have any lingering moisture or another disturbance moving in, that would translate to light, valley snow potential.
This is definitely evolving, and we’re monitoring it all here in the StormTracker Weather Center as we get closer.
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