MISSOULA - A consulting firm hired to create a redevelopment scenario for a city-owned parcel off Johnson Street unveiled its vision on Wednesday, one that includes a range of housing types across several income levels.
Yet the final design and cost of the project remains in flux and will be determined in part by the subsidies needed — and available — to hit a targeted income level for the housing component.
Mark Sindell of GGLO said the project was designed to be flexible. The City Council, the Missoula Redevelopment Agency (MRA) and the Missoula Economic Partnership (MEP) will help determine that outcome, he said.
“This could be anything and everything in between,” said Sindell. “It's going to be an ongoing conversation over the next couple of months to determine what's feasible and possible. The community was pretty clear in its hope for some level of affordability.”
The redevelopment proposal includes two scenarios, each including multi-family housing and townhomes. The difference between the two varies based on the number of total housing units, the blend of each unit type and those available for purchase.
Jennifer Shuch with GGLO said a number of factors will dictate the end cost, including whether the city donates or sells the land to a development team. The availability of Low Income Housing Tax Credits, along with other local, state and federal funding sources, will also be key.
Regardless, Shuch says the project will require some level of traditional debt.
“We looked at the option of selling the land versus giving it for free. Either way, there's a feasibility gap, though providing the land for free reduces the amount of direct cash subsidy,” she said.
An average market-rate apartment in Missoula fetches around $1,700 a month. The figure would fall to around $1,200 if subsidies can be found to hit the desired level of affordability.
Shuch added that providing townhomes at 140% of the area median income would also bring the average cost down from $600,000 to around $450,000. But that also presents a construction gap.
“It's not a cheap townhome, but it's significantly less than what a new market-rate townhome would be,” she said.
The city purchased the property from Montana Rail Link several years ago and converted a portion of the property into a park. The remaining parcel was eyed for redevelopment, but once the pandemic hit, the city converted one structure on the property into an emergency winter shelter.
The decision irked the surrounding neighborhood, which continued to lobby for the site's eventual redevelopment. The city in 2023 passed a resolution to ensure that outcome. It called for the shelter's closing and the demolition of the property's remaining structures by the close of 2025.
It also called upon the city to create a plan for redevelopment. The city hired GGLO to begin that process and create a vision for moving forward.
“This is a concept. It's an idea that will guide the city's future thinking,” said council member Mike Nugent. “One of the conversations separate from this is subsidy and what the city and MRA can contribute. This process was done to guide and influence the city's decision-making.”
The role parking plays in the final product will also become clear as the project advances. The Legislature recently passed a bill addressing parking requirements in a push to bring down construction costs and aim for more affordable housing.
Under the law, units smaller than 1,200 square feet no longer require parking, while units larger than that only require one parking stall. The market and consumer demand may have the final say.
“This is a concept to convey what's possible, but it's not set into code,” Sindell said. “Developers want to sell and lease and fill housing, so you have to park it adequately. But parking is really expensive, so they're not going to overpark a project. Setting minimums and letting the market dictate that, usually, they're going to get it right.”
With a development scenario now in hand, MRA and MEP will begin seeking and vetting developers interested and capable of building the project. MRA this week will also consider applying tax increment to remove most of the buildings still on site, including the former shelter.
“These things do take a fair amount of time. We assume this process would take about a year, and then engineering and phasing and construction could start as soon as 2028. Nothing's going to be built tomorrow,” said Sindell
